The Fall and fall of AAP! – An analysis by Abdul Qadir


Because there is no Performance criteria for top leadership role which is currently held by Kejriwal.


Kejriwal is the current leader of AAP and he has squatted on top post

even after delivering bad performances election after elections. The

party under him has faced successive defeats from Punjab to Goa to MCD

elections in Delhi to Bypolls in Punjab to Municipal elections in

Punjab. AAP was not just defeated they were demolished.

Let’s start with results of the Gujarat Assembly elections result of which were announced just yesterday (18th December, 2017).



several round of Yes and No, Arvind finally decided to fight the

elections. Even after that the number kept on varying, eventually 27

people contested the election.


votes cast to AAP are so low in Gujarat that even NOTA ( None of the

Above) outvote them. Following is the table of number of votes cast to

AAP’s candidates under Kejriwal’s leadership in Gujarat and NOTA in the

respective constituency.

Source: Constituencywise-All Candidates (Election Commission of India)

Here are some of the highlights

AAP lost all 27 seats, in, fact AAP lost security deposit in all seats[1]In 26 out of 27 seats AAP got less (far less) votes than even NOTA.The maximum votes an AAP candidate got was in Chotta Udaipur which is 4551. Most of the AAP candidates got less than 500 votes. Winning candidates generally get around 60,000 votes.Arvind’s party got a total of 24,918 votes (refer table above) in Gujarat. NOTA votes in seats in which AAP contested were 69,692, a cool 280% of what AAP got. In the whole state NOTA got 551,615 votes.To put things in prospective, if all those who votes for Arvind in Gujarat State were somehow concentrated in one constituency, AAP would have still lost the constituency comprehensively. That’s how bad the performance is.The total vote percentage of AAP in Gujarat was .08%, which means only 8 voter out of 10,000 voter support Kejriwal. So if you are an AAP supporter in Gujarat, you are as rare as metal Iridium is in Earth’s crust.


this was one of the surveys conducted last year. It’s going to be

embarrassing for anybody who believed it back then. Here is the tweet


I mean who conducts

such outlandish polls? I remember Ashutosh and co once sharing surveys

where AAP was getting a majority in Punjab and Goa. There is certainly

something wrong with the methodology of conducting surveys, if there is




was expected to do well in Goa, but thanks to poor selection of

candidates and giving charge to Sisodia (who was the only guy along with

Kapil holding the development baton in Delhi) meant that everything was

messed up. AAP lost all seats. In fact it lost deposit in 38 of the 39

seats it contested[2].

AAP lost Punjab which it should have won easily. But thanks to Kejriwal’s failure to dissociate himself from Khalistanis [3]coupled with poor leadership, AAP lost it. And after that several leaders in Punjab including the state convener left AAP.


AAP failed to retain Rajouri seat in the Bypoll[4]. And then ultimate decimation came in MCD elections in Delhi (April, 2017)[5]. BJP won 181 seats, AAP won a mere 49 seats. I mean if a leader cannot perform in his own bastion than how can you expect him to lead victories in other part of the country?

Even after the loss, he showed no sign of introspection. Only used the EVM excuse to evade any question on his leadership.



won 8 Nagar Panchayat seats out of 5,433 (0.14% success rate) and one

Nagar Panchayat chair person out of 438 seats (0.22% success rate). How

charismatic is a leader when when he ensures a success rate less than




lot of Arvind supporter are thinking AAP will win in Punjab next time

around. But in the last two months, a Parliamentary bypoll and Municipal

& Nagar Panchayat elections have indicated, perhaps that may never


Oct, 2017 Gurdaspur Parliamentary bypoll seat[6]:

Do you see how many votes AAP got? That’s not even 10% of second placed contender.

Then there were municipal elections result of which were announced last week (December 2017)[7].


you see, performance of Arvind in Punjab is as worse as in Gujarat.

They couldn’t win a single ward in three biggest cities of Punjab. And

Nagar Panchayats results are no better either.

Who is the reason for all these defeats? On whom should the accountability be fixed for these continuous losses of AAP.

On this man. Arvind Kejriwal.



will continue to lose if there is no performance based leadership

roles. Kejriwal has lost every single election for AAP except one freak

win in 2015. It’s time he steps down himself or is ousted to give way to

a new leader. AAP is not a private property of Kejriwal that nobody

can’t replace him. AAP needs an independent thinking individual like

Kumar Vishwas or Manish Sisodia (if he refuse to be puppet in hands of

Arvind). Kejriwal has no leadership qualities, if he remain at helm of

AAP, the fall of AAP will continue. In fact, AAP is already in shreds.

It amazes me how some people still see him as a leader worthy of leading

AAP to have a strong national presence. Removing him will send out a

message that, Yes, AAP has intra-party democracy and it is not a fiefdom

of one guy and his family. Now is the time to show that it’s a party

with a difference where ideas matter more than individuals.


[1] NOTA gets 2.5 times more votes than AAP in Gujarat[2] AAP lost deposit in 38 of 39 seats – Times of India[3] Arvind Kejriwal courts controversy by staying in alleged Khalistani terrorists house ahead of Punjab polls[4] Delhi Assembly by-election: AAP suffers humiliating defeat in Rajouri Garden. Why itll also lose MCD elections[5] Municipal Corporation of Delhi election, 2017 – Wikipedia[6] Gurdaspur bypoll results 2017: Congress breaks all records, wins by 1.93 lakh vote margin[7] Congress sweeps municipal polls in Punjab, SAD-BJP cries foul – Times of India

The Article was first published on Quora and has been republished on The South Asian Express with Author’s permission

(Views are Personal)For latest Updates follow us on Facebook, Twitter and Instagram

[ajax_load_more post_type=”post” category=”opinion” post__not_in=”1591″ scroll_distance=”500″]