The Fall and fall of AAP! – An analysis by Abdul Qadir

Original Question : What are the key reasons for the continuous downfall of AAP?

New Delhi: Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal during an Iftar party at old Secretariat in New Delhi on Sunday .PTI Photo by Atul Yadav(PTI6_26_2016_000176A)

Because there is no Performance criteria for top leadership role which is currently held by Kejriwal.

Arvind Kejriwal is the current leader of AAP and he has squatted on top post even after delivering bad performances election after elections. The party under him has faced successive defeats from Punjab to Goa to MCD elections in Delhi to Bypolls in Punjab to Municipal elections in Punjab. AAP was not just defeated they were demolished.

Let’s start with results of the Gujarat Assembly elections result of which were announced just yesterday (18th December, 2017).


After several round of Yes and No, Arvind finally decided to fight the elections. Even after that the number kept on varying, eventually 27 people contested the election.

The votes cast to AAP are so low in Gujarat that even NOTA ( None of the Above) outvote them. Following is the table of number of votes cast to AAP’s candidates under Kejriwal’s leadership in Gujarat and NOTA in the respective constituency.

Source: Constituencywise-All Candidates (Election Commission of India)

Here are some of the highlights

  • AAP lost all 27 seats, in, fact AAP lost security deposit in all seats[1]
  • In 26 out of 27 seats AAP got less (far less) votes than even NOTA.
  • The maximum votes an AAP candidate got was in Chotta Udaipur which is 4551. Most of the AAP candidates got less than 500 votes. Winning candidates generally get around 60,000 votes.
  • Arvind’s party got a total of 24,918 votes (refer table above) in Gujarat. NOTA votes in seats in which AAP contested were 69,692, a cool 280% of what AAP got. In the whole state NOTA got 551,615 votes.
  • To put things in prospective, if all those who votes for Arvind in Gujarat State were somehow concentrated in one constituency, AAP would have still lost the constituency comprehensively. That’s how bad the performance is.
  • The total vote percentage of AAP in Gujarat was .08%, which means only 8 voter out of 10,000 voter support Kejriwal. So if you are an AAP supporter in Gujarat, you are as rare as metal Iridium is in Earth’s crust.

And this was one of the surveys conducted last year. It’s going to be embarrassing for anybody who believed it back then. Here is the tweet link.

I mean who conducts such outlandish polls? I remember Ashutosh and co once sharing surveys where AAP was getting a majority in Punjab and Goa. There is certainly something wrong with the methodology of conducting surveys, if there is any?.


AAP was expected to do well in Goa, but thanks to poor selection of candidates and giving charge to Sisodia (who was the only guy along with Kapil holding the development baton in Delhi) meant that everything was messed up. AAP lost all seats. In fact it lost deposit in 38 of the 39 seats it contested[2].

AAP lost Punjab which it should have won easily. But thanks to Kejriwal’s failure to dissociate himself from Khalistanis [3]coupled with poor leadership, AAP lost it. And after that several leaders in Punjab including the state convener left AAP.


AAP failed to retain Rajouri seat in the Bypoll[4]. And then ultimate decimation came in MCD elections in Delhi (April, 2017)[5]. BJP won 181 seats, AAP won a mere 49 seats. I mean if a leader cannot perform in his own bastion than how can you expect him to lead victories in other part of the country?

Even after the loss, he showed no sign of introspection. Only used the EVM excuse to evade any question on his leadership.


AAP won 8 Nagar Panchayat seats out of 5,433 (0.14% success rate) and one Nagar Panchayat chair person out of 438 seats (0.22% success rate). How charismatic is a leader when when he ensures a success rate less than 1%?


A lot of Arvind supporter are thinking AAP will win in Punjab next time around. But in the last two months, a Parliamentary bypoll and Municipal & Nagar Panchayat elections have indicated, perhaps that may never happen.

Oct, 2017 Gurdaspur Parliamentary bypoll seat[6]:

Do you see how many votes AAP got? That’s not even 10% of second placed contender.

Then there were municipal elections result of which were announced last week (December 2017)[7].

Dio you see, performance of Arvind in Punjab is as worse as in Gujarat. They couldn’t win a single ward in three biggest cities of Punjab. And Nagar Panchayats results are no better either.

Who is the reason for all these defeats? On whom should the accountability be fixed for these continuous losses of AAP.

On this man. Arvind Kejriwal.


AAP will continue to lose if there is no performance based leadership roles. Kejriwal has lost every single election for AAP except one freak win in 2015. It’s time he steps down himself or is ousted to give way to a new leader. AAP is not a private property of Kejriwal that nobody can’t replace him. AAP needs an independent thinking individual like Kumar Vishwas or Manish Sisodia (if he refuse to be puppet in hands of Arvind). Kejriwal has no leadership qualities, if he remain at helm of AAP, the fall of AAP will continue. In fact, AAP is already in shreds. It amazes me how some people still see him as a leader worthy of leading AAP to have a strong national presence. Removing him will send out a message that, Yes, AAP has intra-party democracy and it is not a fiefdom of one guy and his family. Now is the time to show that it’s a party with a difference where ideas matter more than individuals.


The Article was first published on Quora and has been republished on The South Asian Express with Author’s permission

(Views are Personal)

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    About Abdul Qadir 10 Articles
    Abdul Qadir is a top writer on Quora. Follow him at The articles by Abdul Qadir first appeared on Quora and have been reproduced here with permission.